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Data

  HOLYOKE GRAVITY MODEL          
  "30 miles" Trade Area 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 Population 1,074,770        
2 Group quarters 47333        
3 Population in households 1,027,437 1,050,575 1,073,593 1,130,553 1,188,223
4 Households(+1%/year) 392662 412692.06 433743.5027 455868 479122
5 Ave. Hhld. size (-.56%/yr) 2.61659 2.545664 2.47517927 2.48 2.48
6 Ave. income/Hhld.(+4%/yr) 40260 49453.95 63117.16458 72506 88215
7 Aggregate income $(000) 15,808,572 20,409,253 27,376,660 33,053,165 42,265,747
8 GAFO % of income(-1%/yr) 13 12.3651 11.75908707 11.12 10.65
9 Potential GAFO exp.$(000) 2,055,114 2,523,624 3,219,245 3,675,512 4,501,302
  Stores of Holyoke 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
10 Stores of HH: size (s.f.) 90000 200000 200000 200000 200000
11 Travel time (minutes) 20 20 20 20 20
12 SOHH Factor 225 500 500 500 500
13 Capture rate = 15/[15+24+31] 0.006054781682 0.01273295692 0.01221906845 0.01262686049 0.01252218775
14 SALES Stores of HH$(000) 12443.26888 32133.2018 39336.17856 46410.17689 56366.14977
15 Plus Attractions inflow 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2
16 TOTAL SALES $(000) 12443.26888 33739.86189 43269.79642 53371.70342 67639.37973
17 Sales/s.f. 138.2585431 168.6993094 216.3489821 266.8585171 338.1968986
  Holyoke Mall 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
18 Holyoke Mall: size (s.f.) 1,000,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 1,300,000
19 Travel time (minutes) 16 16 16 16 16
20 HM Factor 3906.25 5078.125 5078.125 5078.125 5078.125
21 SALES $(000) 270000 391623.3969 479409.6763 589191.6987 715585.8858
22 80% from Trade Area $(000) 216000 326352.8307 399508.0635 471353.359 572468.7086
23 Capture rate % 0.1051036393 0.1293190937 0.124099914 0.1282415518 0.1271784694
  AllOther Retail Stores 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
24 AllOtherStores: size (s.f.) 10,000,000 10,100,000 10,200,000 10,300,000 10,400,000
25 Travel time (minutes) 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4
26 AOS Factor 33029.46228 33690.05153 35341.52464 34020 34351
             
  MELVIN F. LEVINE, aicp Œ 1 CHISWICK TERRACE Œ BOSTON, MA 02135-4611          


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